Analysis and similarities between 2008 and 2020 Nifty moves across price and time

Analysis and similarities between 2008 and 2020 Nifty moves across price and time

There is similarity across 2008 and 2020 Nifty price square roots

1.       2020 and 2008 highs

2008 High at 6357 – Square root = 79.73

2020 Hight at 12430 – Square root = 111.49

Difference in square root = 31.74  ~32 (8*4)

2.       2008 Jan and Oct lows

Jan 2008 High at 6357 – Square root = 79.73

Oct 2008 Low at 2252 – Square root = 47.46

Difference in square root = 32.27  ~32 (8*4)

3.       2008 Lows and 2020 highs

2020 Hight at 12430 – Square root = 111.49

Oct 2008 Low at 2252 – Square root = 47.46

Difference in square root = 64.03  ~64 (8*8)

4.       2020 Highs and lows

Jan 2020 Hight at 12430 – Square root = 111.49

March 2020 lows at 7511 – Square root = 86.67

Difference in square root = 24.83  ~ 24 (8*3)

At 7652 (square root = 87.48) the price difference would have been a perfect difference of 24 square root, difference of ~100 points or ~1%. The March 2020 lows are made during a global panic selling and shows the strength of panic across.

The above shows very clearly how the price points are connected by a square root esp. connected through square of 8.

On Square of nine

-          Jan 2008 high and Jan 2020 high are at 45 degree apart

-          Oct 2008 Low and Jan 2020 are only 5 degree apart

-          Jan 2020 high and March 2020 lows are 210 (180+30) degree apart

Time duration

-          12-year cycles from Jan 2008 high to Jan 2020 Highs (only 6 degree apart in stars)

-          Around one fourth (92 degree) of important 45-year cycle

-          135 degree apart for important 20-year cycle

Nifty 50 Price and Time analysis - At an important juncture

 

The recent drop in Nifty 50 index is a kind of 6 sigma event with prices touching 5 standard deviation lows. This has been steepest and largest fall on monthly basis.

Below is Nifty 50 index chart with Bollinger band at 5 SD levels.

Nifty 50 Index

Crucial support levels of 10400, 9000, 8600 and 8100 have been broken without any bounce clearly indicates strength of panic selling. Index is very near to important levels of 7225 and 6950.

Dow Jones index

This is first time the prices touched and passed through lower band even during 2008, 2000, 1987 and 1929 crashes.

Dow Jones 1929 – While index gave up 90% of the peak, process never touched 5 SD lower bands.

Index is near to 50% retracement levels (7316) from 2008 lows and Jan 2020 highs.

Time Analysis

The peak in Jan 2020 has come at very crucial and important time. Below are key points

-          ~90 years from Sep 1929 peak

-          ~45 years from Dec 1974 lows

-          ~20 years from Feb 2000 peak

-          ~12 years from Jan 2008 lows

Also, the 18 year panic cycle formed by stars. All have been pointing towards this critical juncture.

The above shows very clearly that the Jan 2020 high will prove to be multi months or possibly multi years high going ahead.

  

What’s next - This is based on pure analysis and not meant as trading or investing advice. Please consult your financial adviser before any actions. 

Price wise 7250 is an important level which should act as important support.

Time wise March 23 and 24 are trend change dates and marks start of Spring.  Also next week April 6^th is also an important trend change date.

Today Gold has turned up which clearly shows margin selling is getting over.

Overall a bounce is expected at/near these levels. Next major turn date is May second week where multiple cycles are culminating.

Nifty update 15 June 2015

Nifty index closed below 8000 levels for the week. This is lowest closing for 2015.

Index 4 hr charts are in Sell mode but RMA shows bullish divergence.

We need to see Bullish signal on 4 hr chart for buying sign.

Nifty weekly update 31 May 2015

Nifty closed more or less flat for the week making doji on weekly charts.
During the week it moved below 200 daily SMA but finally closed above it. As of now 50 daily SMA at 8440 is resistance and index needs to close above it for up move ahead.

Index managed to stay above 20 day moving average is a bullish sign.  Now 8480 is resistance and any retreat from that level will be bearish sign.

Daily RMA is looking interesting with uptick from 50 levels.

View is slightly bullish with 20 day sma at 8290 as stop loss.

Nifty weekly review 24 May 2015

Nifty index touched high of 8490 last week and closed at 8459 levels. Index saw profit booking in last hour which shows slight uneasiness of bulls at 8500 levels.

Index closed below 50 SMA at 8470 levels. Also index has not crossed upper bollinger or keltner band as of now on daily charts which shows resistance at 8500 to be there for some time.

Daily RMA has not crossed 60 levels which is very critical for bullishness to sustain. 

This week being expiry Call and Put OI can define trading till Thursday. As of now 8400 Put OI is highest and index will take support at these levels. On upside there is slight reduction of 8500 Call OI which is slightly bullish but there is a lot of technical resistance at those levels.

As of now it seems it seems trading will be range bound within 8400 to 8520 levels for the week. 

If we close above 8520 levels then it will be upside breakout for index. 

Mid week update 21 May 2015

Nifty has moved to 8400 levels this week. It is first resistance at 38% retracement level from 9100 levels. Also index has been in range at 8380 - 8440 levels from last two days.

There are multiple resistances in 8400-8500 range.
First is 8464, 92 square then 50 SMA at 8487 and then at 8496 levels.
Also 4 Hr keltner band is at 8440 levels which index is not crossing as of now.

Support is at 8350 levels.

Its wait and watch as of now.

Nifty weekly review 17 May 2015

Nifty index closed slightly +ive for the week at 8262 levels. Though it remains below 200 SMA at 8297, it recovered from lows of the week.
Weekly candle was an inside candle at lower keltner band with RMA at 41 levels.
Daily trend has come to Neutral from Sell mode is a good sign.

Trend for next week will turn to bullish if we cross 8330 levels and move above it.
Short term support is at 8100 levels and if we break it then move to 7900 is possible.

4 HR trend is slightly bullish with both RMA and trend indicator in buy mode.