Nifty 50 Price and Time analysis - At an important juncture

 

The recent drop in Nifty 50 index is a kind of 6 sigma event with prices touching 5 standard deviation lows. This has been steepest and largest fall on monthly basis.

Below is Nifty 50 index chart with Bollinger band at 5 SD levels.

Nifty 50 Index

Crucial support levels of 10400, 9000, 8600 and 8100 have been broken without any bounce clearly indicates strength of panic selling. Index is very near to important levels of 7225 and 6950.

Dow Jones index

This is first time the prices touched and passed through lower band even during 2008, 2000, 1987 and 1929 crashes.

Dow Jones 1929 – While index gave up 90% of the peak, process never touched 5 SD lower bands.

Index is near to 50% retracement levels (7316) from 2008 lows and Jan 2020 highs.

Time Analysis

The peak in Jan 2020 has come at very crucial and important time. Below are key points

-          ~90 years from Sep 1929 peak

-          ~45 years from Dec 1974 lows

-          ~20 years from Feb 2000 peak

-          ~12 years from Jan 2008 lows

Also, the 18 year panic cycle formed by stars. All have been pointing towards this critical juncture.

The above shows very clearly that the Jan 2020 high will prove to be multi months or possibly multi years high going ahead.

  

What’s next - This is based on pure analysis and not meant as trading or investing advice. Please consult your financial adviser before any actions. 

Price wise 7250 is an important level which should act as important support.

Time wise March 23 and 24 are trend change dates and marks start of Spring.  Also next week April 6^th is also an important trend change date.

Today Gold has turned up which clearly shows margin selling is getting over.

Overall a bounce is expected at/near these levels. Next major turn date is May second week where multiple cycles are culminating.