Nifty 50 Price and Time analysis - At an important juncture

 

The recent drop in Nifty 50 index is a kind of 6 sigma event with prices touching 5 standard deviation lows. This has been steepest and largest fall on monthly basis.

Below is Nifty 50 index chart with Bollinger band at 5 SD levels.

Nifty 50 Index

Crucial support levels of 10400, 9000, 8600 and 8100 have been broken without any bounce clearly indicates strength of panic selling. Index is very near to important levels of 7225 and 6950.

Dow Jones index

This is first time the prices touched and passed through lower band even during 2008, 2000, 1987 and 1929 crashes.

Dow Jones 1929 – While index gave up 90% of the peak, process never touched 5 SD lower bands.

Index is near to 50% retracement levels (7316) from 2008 lows and Jan 2020 highs.

Time Analysis

The peak in Jan 2020 has come at very crucial and important time. Below are key points

-          ~90 years from Sep 1929 peak

-          ~45 years from Dec 1974 lows

-          ~20 years from Feb 2000 peak

-          ~12 years from Jan 2008 lows

Also, the 18 year panic cycle formed by stars. All have been pointing towards this critical juncture.

The above shows very clearly that the Jan 2020 high will prove to be multi months or possibly multi years high going ahead.

  

What’s next - This is based on pure analysis and not meant as trading or investing advice. Please consult your financial adviser before any actions. 

Price wise 7250 is an important level which should act as important support.

Time wise March 23 and 24 are trend change dates and marks start of Spring.  Also next week April 6^th is also an important trend change date.

Today Gold has turned up which clearly shows margin selling is getting over.

Overall a bounce is expected at/near these levels. Next major turn date is May second week where multiple cycles are culminating.

Nifty update 15 June 2015

Nifty index closed below 8000 levels for the week. This is lowest closing for 2015.

Index 4 hr charts are in Sell mode but RMA shows bullish divergence.

We need to see Bullish signal on 4 hr chart for buying sign.

Nifty weekly update 31 May 2015

Nifty closed more or less flat for the week making doji on weekly charts.
During the week it moved below 200 daily SMA but finally closed above it. As of now 50 daily SMA at 8440 is resistance and index needs to close above it for up move ahead.

Index managed to stay above 20 day moving average is a bullish sign.  Now 8480 is resistance and any retreat from that level will be bearish sign.

Daily RMA is looking interesting with uptick from 50 levels.

View is slightly bullish with 20 day sma at 8290 as stop loss.

Nifty weekly review 24 May 2015

Nifty index touched high of 8490 last week and closed at 8459 levels. Index saw profit booking in last hour which shows slight uneasiness of bulls at 8500 levels.

Index closed below 50 SMA at 8470 levels. Also index has not crossed upper bollinger or keltner band as of now on daily charts which shows resistance at 8500 to be there for some time.

Daily RMA has not crossed 60 levels which is very critical for bullishness to sustain. 

This week being expiry Call and Put OI can define trading till Thursday. As of now 8400 Put OI is highest and index will take support at these levels. On upside there is slight reduction of 8500 Call OI which is slightly bullish but there is a lot of technical resistance at those levels.

As of now it seems it seems trading will be range bound within 8400 to 8520 levels for the week. 

If we close above 8520 levels then it will be upside breakout for index. 

Mid week update 21 May 2015

Nifty has moved to 8400 levels this week. It is first resistance at 38% retracement level from 9100 levels. Also index has been in range at 8380 - 8440 levels from last two days.

There are multiple resistances in 8400-8500 range.
First is 8464, 92 square then 50 SMA at 8487 and then at 8496 levels.
Also 4 Hr keltner band is at 8440 levels which index is not crossing as of now.

Support is at 8350 levels.

Its wait and watch as of now.

Nifty weekly review 17 May 2015

Nifty index closed slightly +ive for the week at 8262 levels. Though it remains below 200 SMA at 8297, it recovered from lows of the week.
Weekly candle was an inside candle at lower keltner band with RMA at 41 levels.
Daily trend has come to Neutral from Sell mode is a good sign.

Trend for next week will turn to bullish if we cross 8330 levels and move above it.
Short term support is at 8100 levels and if we break it then move to 7900 is possible.

4 HR trend is slightly bullish with both RMA and trend indicator in buy mode.

Nifty Trend update 17 Nov

Nifty trend update

Nifty index appears to be stalling at 8420-8330 levels. Last two weeks moves have been in 1.5% band.
Looking at RMA and bands Nifty appears slightly in over bot zone.

Trend view
4 HR trend: Bullish

Trading wise there is no signal for profit booking or short side trade.

Levels to watch: 8440 and 8320.
Break of these levels will set direction.

Next week 17th-18th Nov can be possible trend changing dates.