NSE Indices movement analysis 29 April 2020

NSE Indices movement analysis 29 April 2020

Below is a brief snapshot of indices fall from 20 Jan 2020 highs to 24 March 2020 and then up move.

Index	20-Jan-20	24-Mar-20	29-Apr-20	%age fall	%age rise	Net move
Nifty 50	12430	7511	9553.35	-40%	27%	-23%
Nifty Next 50	28754	18720	23624.05	-35%	26%	-18%
NIFTY MIDCAP 50	4945	2975	3650	-40%	23%	-26%
NIFTY SMLCAP 50	3036	1611	1916.05	-47%	19%	-37%
Nifty Auto	8353	4694	5543.75	-44%	18%	-34%
Nifty Bank	31081	17017	21090.2	-45%	24%	-32%
Nifty Energy	15855	10024	12611.55	-37%	26%	-20%
Nifty Financial Services	14360	8419	10292.9	-41%	22%	-28%
Nifty FMCG	31427	23971	28665	-24%	20%	-9%
Nifty IT	16207	11865	13424.95	-27%	13%	-17%
Nifty Media	1836	1032	1165.95	-44%	13%	-36%
Nifty Metal	2835	1502	1724	-47%	15%	-39%
Nifty Pharma	8294	6611	8385	-20%	27%	1%
Nifty Realty	326	171	183.00	-48%	7%	-44%
Reliance	1609	943	1427	-41%	51%	-11%

Indices fallen more than Nifty 50 are highlighted in light red and indices rose more than Nifty 50 are in light green colour.

Key points

1.       Nifty Pharma is above 20 Jan 2020 closing price giving us net +ive return.

2.       Indices fallen less than Nifty 50 (at -23%) from 20 Jan 2020 are

a.       Nifty Pharma at +1%

b.       Nifty FMCG at -9%

c.       Nifty IT at -17%

d.       Nifty Next 50 at -18%.

3.       %age rise from 24 March 2020 lows

a.       Nifty Pharma at 27%

b.       Nifty Next 50 at 26%

c.       Nifty Energy at 26%

d.       Nifty 50 at 26%

Some observations

1.       Nifty Next 50 is outperforming Nifty 50 after a long time.

2.       Most of gains in Nifty 50 are from Reliance only

3.       Nifty FMCG while has not fallen during Jan-March 2020, it did not give good gains from March lows.

4.       Nifty Pharma is net +ive from 20 Jan 2020 high

5.       Nifty Mid caps behaved much better in the fall by underperforming Nifty 50 by 3 percent only. Midcaps have been in downtrend since Jan 2018 highs.

We need to analyse top 200 stocks move also to see where money is flown out and now coming in. Will publish that soon.

Analysis and similarities between 2008 and 2020 Nifty moves across price and time

Analysis and similarities between 2008 and 2020 Nifty moves across price and time

There is similarity across 2008 and 2020 Nifty price square roots

1.       2020 and 2008 highs

2008 High at 6357 – Square root = 79.73

2020 Hight at 12430 – Square root = 111.49

Difference in square root = 31.74  ~32 (8*4)

2.       2008 Jan and Oct lows

Jan 2008 High at 6357 – Square root = 79.73

Oct 2008 Low at 2252 – Square root = 47.46

Difference in square root = 32.27  ~32 (8*4)

3.       2008 Lows and 2020 highs

2020 Hight at 12430 – Square root = 111.49

Oct 2008 Low at 2252 – Square root = 47.46

Difference in square root = 64.03  ~64 (8*8)

4.       2020 Highs and lows

Jan 2020 Hight at 12430 – Square root = 111.49

March 2020 lows at 7511 – Square root = 86.67

Difference in square root = 24.83  ~ 24 (8*3)

At 7652 (square root = 87.48) the price difference would have been a perfect difference of 24 square root, difference of ~100 points or ~1%. The March 2020 lows are made during a global panic selling and shows the strength of panic across.

The above shows very clearly how the price points are connected by a square root esp. connected through square of 8.

On Square of nine

-          Jan 2008 high and Jan 2020 high are at 45 degree apart

-          Oct 2008 Low and Jan 2020 are only 5 degree apart

-          Jan 2020 high and March 2020 lows are 210 (180+30) degree apart

Time duration

-          12-year cycles from Jan 2008 high to Jan 2020 Highs (only 6 degree apart in stars)

-          Around one fourth (92 degree) of important 45-year cycle

-          135 degree apart for important 20-year cycle