Nifty Trend update 17 Nov

Nifty trend update

Nifty index appears to be stalling at 8420-8330 levels. Last two weeks moves have been in 1.5% band.
Looking at RMA and bands Nifty appears slightly in over bot zone.

Trend view
4 HR trend: Bullish

Trading wise there is no signal for profit booking or short side trade.

Levels to watch: 8440 and 8320.
Break of these levels will set direction.

Next week 17th-18th Nov can be possible trend changing dates.

Weekly update 11th Aug

For the week starting 11th Aug 2014

Trend : Bearish,
Power: Low

Stoploss levels: 7644, 7686, 7720
Support levels: 7500,

Index closed below 50 SMA for the first time since Feb'14. We need to see 2 more close below 50 SMA for final conformation of it being resistance.

The 4 HR chart has still not indicated a powerful bearish trend as candle close below lower band and RMA minor break of 40 are missing.

Looking at Trend changing dates we have 8th to 11th as cluster.

Lets see if we can expect some reversal on Monday and how long it can last.

Daily update 21 July 2014

Daily update 21 July 2014

21-Jul-14
Trend	Bullish
Power	Low
Support	Resistance
7612	7710
7583	7731/7745

July 2014 Trend Change Dates

For July 2014 TCD dates are:

15th July
21st July
and 31st July.

21st July can prove to be a short term top.

Trend Change Dates June 2014

Trend Change Dates June 2014

Following are cluster of days for Trend change in June

1. 5th (Thu)/6th (Fri) J/M
2. 10th (Tue)11th (Wed)/12th (Thu) M+SF/EV/H
3. 16th (Mon)/17th (Tue)/18th (Wed)/19 (Thu)/20th (Fri) H/M+H/H+S+T/SF/T
4. 23rd (Mon)/25th (Wed) S/S

Mer OOB 10th May to 6th June

H Mars Sat conjunction 15 June

Summer Solstice 21 June

So possible Trend change dates are

5th/6th, 11th, 18th/19th, and 24th for June month.

Daily update 21 May 2014

Daily RMA update

Hourly RMA charts

Nifty levels 7320 and 7210.

Daily update 20 May 2014

Daily RMA update

RMA Hourly charts

TCD date in May 2014

TCD changing dates in May 2014.

1. 2nd (Fri) /5th (Mon) H/J
2. 9th (Fri)/12th (Mon) S/J
3. 15th (Thu)/16th (Fri)/19th (Mon) H/T
4. 20th (Tue)/ 22nd (Thu) S
5. 25th (Sat) M
6. 30th (Fri)/30th (Fri)/31st (Sat) J/M/S

Cardinal Dates: 9th May and 24th May

Mercury Out of Bounds on 10th May 2014.

In addition

5/1: DOW geocentric Nodes 72°/36°

5/2: Mars enters Scorpio

5/10: Saturn-Earth Conjunction

Lunar Dates

Full Moon 14th May Wed 

New Moon 29th May 

RMA update 1 HR 30 Apr 2014

RMA 1 HR update

NLMA trend has given bearish signal. RMA Minor is also below 40 levels.

TCD date is 30th May 2014.

Daily update 24 Apr

Nifty index bounced during first half of day but declined slightly in the second half. We expected first half bounce but the sideways move in second half raises lot of question about the rally.

Hourly RMA minor has declined again.

Worth noticing is the Supertrend MTF which major trend still bearish.

Trend is surely showing signs of weakening in major trend change window of 22-26th Apr.

RMA 1 HR 22 Apr update

RMA 1 HR update

Nifty index closed flat with RMA minor declining slightly. Index is in bullish state so some bounce can be expected.
Daily RMA is in bullish state as it is bouncing from 60 levels.

Now we are entering the major time window of 22-26th Apr.

RMA 1 HR 22 Apr update

RMA 1 HR update

Nifty index broke out from upper band and RMA on hourly charts crossed 60 levels.

Nifty index low on 16th Apr 2014 was 6665.15 --> 666.515.

This was clue for low in place.
We need to watch if RMA minor stays above 60 levels for next days without declining. This will indicate future trend.

RMA 1 HR 17 Apr update

RMA update 17 Apr

Index gave bearish signal y'day and selloff continued today. Hourly chart are still in bearish trend.
Nifty level to watch is 6650-6690 for spot.

RMA 1 HR 16 Apr update

RMA update 16 Apr

Chart speaks for itself. Trend line signaled downtrend.

If index closes below today's low then it will be bearish signal while if we bounce then 6780-95 will be resistance levels.

Till now in this rally index has bounced next day whenever it has touched lower hourly band.

RMA 1 HR 11 Apr update

15 Apr: RMA 1 HR update

Index is in sideways consolidation with bullish undertone.
There is a higher possibility that a minor low is in place for index within our time window of 11th - 15th Apr.
But now the trend has to be of caution as this move will be cause divergence.

RMA 1 HR 10 Apr update

RMA 1 HR 10 Apr update

Today's formation is cautious as hourly RMA came down with 4 HR RMA not able to cross above major RMA.
Hourly breakout should not fail in 1-2 days which would indicate that Nifty can in sideways move.
Nifty future closed lower while index was flat for day.

Support is at 6790-80 range. Watch for 6840 levels for spot.

Next probable TCD

Look for 11th Fri, 12th Sat and 15th Tue for minor change on trend.

RMA 1 HR update 9 Apr

RMA 1 HR update 9 Apr

Index broke out of bands with hourly Minor RMA above 60 levels.
Support levels 6795 and 6775.

RMA 1 HR 7 Apr 2014

RMA 1 HR 7 Apr 2014

Daily RMA 1 Hour chart

Daily Charts 2 Apr 2014

RMA Charts

Super Trend chart

April 2014: Nifty Possible Trend changing dates

In April 2014 following are important dates/time cluster to watch for trend change.

1.   Thursday 3rd Apr (TBP) 

2.   7th, 10th and 11th Apr (S, TBP, H)

3.   14th/17th-19th Apr (H/S,H)

4.   25th Apr (TBP,H)

5.   30th Apr (TBP)

Trading Days projection

1st Apr - 49 TD cycle from 29th Jan 2013

7th Apr - 51 TD cycles from 28 Aug 2013

22nd Apr - 4 LTD from 4th June 2012.

Fibo days to watch

CD: 2nd Apr, 10th Apr, 23rd Apr

Cardinal dates: 9th Apr, 24th Apr.

Major cycle date 24th Apr 2014

Short cycle date: 27th Apr 2014.

From above it seems most important time frame to watch is

2nd/3rd Apr, 7th-10th Apr,  24th and 25th April.